Hem Programbeskrivning Studieområde Publikationer Publikation: Ambio Special Issue 2015 Forskare Kalendarium

I februari 2015 publicerade Ekoklim ett Specialnummer i tidskriften Ambio. Numret innehåller en ledare och 14 artiklar med forskning från Ekoklim.

Här kan du läsa sammanfattningar (Abstract) av samtliga 14 artiklar, samt ladda ner artiklarna i sin helhet.

Ledare Elmhagen B, Eriksson O, Lindborg R (2015) Implications of climate and land-use change for landscape processes, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and governance. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S1–S5. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0596-6
Abstract This introduction to the Special Issue summarizes the results of 14 scientific articles from the interdisciplinary research program Ekoklim at Stockholm University, Sweden. In this program, we investigate effects of changing climate and land use on landscape processes, biodiversity, and ecosystem services, and analyze issues related to adaptive governance in the face of climate and land-use change.We not only have a research focus on the 22 650 km2 Norrström catchment surrounding lake Mälaren in south-central Sweden, but we also conduct research in other Swedish regions. The articles presented here show complex interactions between multiple drivers of change, as well as feedback processes at different spatiotemporal scales. Thus, the Ekoklim program highlights and deals with issues relevant for the future challenges society will face when land-use change interacts with climate change.

Paper 1 Verrot L, Destouni G (2015) Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wideranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S6–S16.
DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0583-y

Abstract Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrstroöm and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950–2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

Paper 2 Cousins SAO, Auffret AG, Lindgren J, Tränk L (2015) Regional-scale land-cover change during the 20th century and its consequences for biodiversity. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S17–S27. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0585-9
Abstract Extensive changes in land cover during the 20th century are known to have had detrimental effects on biodiversity in rural landscapes, but themagnitude of change and their ecological effects  are not well known on regional scales. We digitized historical maps from the beginning of the 20th century over a 1652 km2 study area in southeastern Sweden, comparing it tomodern-day land cover with a focus on valuable habitat types. Semi-natural grassland cover decreased by over 96 % in the study area, being largely lost to afforestation and silviculture. Grasslands on finer soils were more likely to be converted into modern grassland or arable fields. However, in addition to remaining semi-natural grassland, today’s valuable deciduous forest and wetland habitats were mostly grazed grassland in 1900. An analysis of the landscape-level biodiversity revealed that plant species richness was generally more related to the modern landscape, with grazingmanagement being a positive influence on species richness.

Paper 3 Strandmark A, Bring A, Cousins SAO, Destouni G, Kautsky H, Kolb G, de la Torre-Castro M, Hambäck PA (2015) Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S28–S38.
DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0586-8

Abstract Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.

Paper 4 Elmhagen B, Kindberg J, Hellström P, Angerbjörn A (2015) A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1):39–50. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0606-8
Abstract It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change includeland use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.

Paper 5 Auffret AG, Plue J, Cousins SAO (2015) The spatial and temporal components of functional connectivity in fragmented landscapes. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S51–S59.
DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0588-6

Abstract Connectivity is key for understanding how ecological systems respond to the challenges of land-use change and habitat fragmentation. Structural and functional connectivity are both established concepts in ecology, but the temporal component of connectivity deserves more attention. Whereas functional connectivity is often associated with spatial patterns (spatial  functional connectivity), temporal functional connectivity relates to the persistence of organisms in time, in the same place. Both temporal and spatial processes determine biodiversity responses to changes in landscape structure, and it is therefore necessary that all aspects of connectivity are considered together. In this perspective, we use a case study to outline why we believe that both the spatial and temporal components of functional connectivity are important for understanding biodiversity patterns in the present-day landscape, and how they can also help us to make better-informed decisions about conserving and restoring

Paper 6 Hylander K, Ehrlén J, Luoto M, Meineri E (2015) Microrefugia: Not for everyone. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S60–S68. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0599-3
Abstract Microrefugia are sites that support populations of species when their ranges contract during unfavorable climate episodes. Here, we review and discuss two aspects relevant for microrefugia. First, distributions of different species are influenced by different climatic variables. Second, climatic variables differ in the degree of local decoupling from the regional climate. Based on this, we suggest that only species limited by climatic conditions decoupled from the regional climate can benefit from microrefugia. We argue that this restriction has received little attention in spite of its importance for microrefugia as a mechanism for species resilience (the survival of unfavorable episodes and  subsequent range expansion). Presence of microrefugia will depend on both the responses of individual species to local climatic variation and how climate-forcing factors shape the correlation between local and regional climate across space and time.

Paper 7 Kullberg C, Fransson T, Hedlund J, Jonzén N, Langvall O, Nilsson J, Bolmgren K (2015) Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change, Swedish data from the last 140 years.  AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1):S69–S77.
DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0600-1

Abstract Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce.Wehave analyzed a historical dataset (1873–1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984–2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.


Specialnummer i AMBIO, publicerat online i Januari 2015

Paper 8 Navarro-Cano JA, Karlsson B, Posledovich D, Toftegaard T, Wiklund C, Ehrlén J, Gotthard K (2015) Climate change, phenology, and butterfly host plant utilization. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S78–S88. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0602-z
Abstract Knowledge of how species interactions are influenced by climate warming is paramount to understand current biodiversity changes. We review phenological changes of Swedish butterflies during the latest decades and explore potential climate effects on butterfly–host plant interactions using the Orange tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines and its host plants as a model system. This butterfly has advanced its appearance dates substantially, and its mean flight date shows a positive correlation with latitude. We show that there is a large latitudinal variation in host use and that butterfly populations select plant individuals based on their flowering phenology. We conclude that A. cardamines is a phenological specialist but a host species generalist. This implies that thermal plasticity for spring development influences host utilization of the butterfly through effects on the phenological matching with its host plants. However, the host utilizationstrategy of A. cardamines appears to render it resilient to relatively large variation in climate.

Paper 9 Queiroz C, Meacham M, Richter K, Norström AV, Andersson A, Norberg J, Peterson G (2015) Mapping bundles of ecosystem services reveals distinct types of multifunctionality within a Swedish landscape. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S89–S101. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0601-0
Abstract Ecosystem services (ES) is a valuable concept to be used in the planning and management of social–ecological landscapes. However, the understanding of the determinant factors affecting the interaction between services in the form of synergies or trade-offs is still limited. We assessed the production of 16 ES across 62 municipalities in the Norrström drainage basin in Sweden. We combined GIS data with publically available information for quantifying and mapping the distribution of services. Additionally, we calculated the diversity of ES for each municipality and used correlations and k-means clustering analyses to assess the existence of ES bundles. We found five distinct types of bundles of ES spatially agglomerated in the landscape that could be explained by regional social and ecological gradients. Human-dominated landscapes were highly multifunctional in our study area and urban densely populated areas were hotspots of cultural services.

Paper 10 Andersson E, Nykvist B, Malinga R, Jaramillo F, Lindborg R (2015) A social–ecological analysis of ecosystem services in two different farming systems. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S102–S112. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0603-y
Abstract In this exploratory study we use existing in situ qualitative and quantitative data on biophysical and social indicators to compare two contrasting Swedish farming systems (low intensity and high intensity) with regard to ecosystem service supply and demand of a broad suite of services. We show that the value (demand) placed on a service is not necessarily connected to the quantity (supply) of the service, most clearly shown for the services recreation, biodiversity, esthetic experience, identity, and cultural heritage. To better capture this complexity we argue for the need to develop portfolios of indicators for different ecosystem services and to further investigate the different aspects of supply and demand. The study indicates that available data are often ill-suited to answer questions about local delivery of services. If ecosystem services are to be included in policy, planning, and management, census data need to be formatted and scaled appropriately.

Paper 11 Moor H, Hylander K, Norberg J (2015) Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S113–S126. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0593-9
Abstract Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrstro¨m area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

Paper 12 Quin A, Jaramillo F, Destouni G (2015) Dissecting the ecosystem service of large-scale pollutant retention: The role of wetlands and other landscape features. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S127–S137. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0594-8
Abstract Various features of a landscape contribute to the regulating ecosystem service of reducing waterborne pollutant loading to downstream environments. At local scales, wetlands have been shown to be effective in retaining pollutants. Here, we investigate the landscape-scale contribution to pollutant retention provided by multiple wetlands. We develop a general analytical model which shows that the retention contribution of wetlands and other landscape features is only significant if a large fraction of the total waterborne pollutant transport passes through them. Next, by means of a statistical analysis of official data, we quantify the nutrient retention contribution of wetlands for multiple sub-catchments in two Swedish Water Management Districts. We compare this with the retention contribution of two other landscape features: the waterborne transport distance and major lakes. The landscape-scale retention contribution of wetlands is undetectable; rather, the other two landscape features account for much of the total nutrient retention.

Paper 13 Kininmonth S, Bergsten A, Bodin Ö (2015) Closing the collaborative gap: Aligning social and ecological connectivity for better management of interconnected wetlands. AMBIO 44(Suppl. 1): S138–S148.
DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0605-9

Abstract Understanding how governance structures align to ecological processes in a landscape is critical for effective management of ecological resources. Ecological resources are not independent from each other, instead they are interconnected, and their well-being is often critically dependent on upholding ecological connectivity, especially in times of change and disturbances. Coordination and collaboration among managing actors, each managing their own piece of the puzzle, is therefore essentially a requirement for effective management. We present a conceptual model that includes ecological resources, managing and coordinating actors, along with an explicit representation on how all these entities are connected to each other. We apply this model to 25 municipalities that manage 408 wetlands in central Sweden. The study shows a good social and ecological alignment, however with a high prevalence for coordination through third parties. We discuss this pattern emergence, its potential implications, and examine which municipalities adopt these coordinating functions.

Paper 14 Boyd E, Nykvist B, Borgström S, Stacewicz IA (2015) Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience.
44(Suppl. 1): S149–S161. DOI 10.1007/s13280-014-0604-x

Abstract Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of  Mlaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience.

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